A New Look at Flood Risk Analysis: Part 1

Accurate evaluation of Flood Risk (FR) is often hampered by insufficient hydro-climatic information. When data are insufficient stochastic-deterministic analysis can be conducted to simulate FR information required in hydraulic design studies. The deterministic approach assumes a priori knowledge of the physical mechanisms operative in the hydrologic system. Stochastic techniques assume that the system behavior can be described by probabilistic laws. Stochastic methods, such as Monte Carlo (MC) techniques can be used to synthesize FR information including flood frequency data. When an MC is used in this manner, it realistically accounts for uncertainties in hydrologic assessment.

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